Coffee and Climate Change
“Most of the world’s wild coffee species have a high chance of going extinct in the next several decades due to more frequent and lengthy droughts, loss of forests and the spread of deadly pests”
Source: Wild coffee species threatened by climate change and deforestation
Climate change is having a rapid and inescapable effect on the global coffee industry. Learn the facts and skills that could help you survive the impact.
Comprehensive Reports
High extinction risk for wild coffee species and implications for coffee sector sustainability
Science Advances
16 Jan 2019
Vol. 5, no. 1, eaav3473
Aaron P. Davis, Helen Chadburn, Justin Moat, Robert O’Sullivan, Serene Hargreaves, and Eimear Nic Lughadha
Abstract:
“Wild coffee species are critical for coffee crop development and, thus, for sustainability of global coffee production. Despite this fact, the extinction risk and conservation priority status of the world’s coffee species are poorly known. Applying IUCN Red List of Threatened Species criteria to all (124) wild coffee species, we undertook a gap analysis for germplasm collections and protected areas and devised a crop wild relative (CWR) priority system. We found that at least 60% of all coffee species are threatened with extinction, 45% are not held in any germplasm collection, and 28% are not known to occur in any protected area. Existing conservation measures, including those for key coffee CWRs, are inadequate. We propose that wild coffee species are extinction sensitive, especially in an era of accelerated climatic change.”
A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee
Climatic Change
13 December 2014
Volume 129, Issue 1–2, pp 89–101
Christian Bunn, Peter Läderach, Oriana Ovalle Rivera, Dieter Kirschke
Abstract:
“Coffee has proven to be highly sensitive to climate change. Because coffee plantations have a lifespan of about thirty years, the likely effects of future climates are already a concern. Forward-looking research on adaptation is therefore in high demand across the entire supply chain. In this paper we seek to project current and future climate suitability for coffee production (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) on a global scale. We used machine learning algorithms to derive functions of climatic suitability from a database of geo-referenced production locations. Use of several parameter combinations enhances the robustness of our analysis. The resulting multi-model ensemble suggests that higher temperatures may reduce yields of C. arabica, while C. canephora could suffer from increasing variability of intra-seasonal temperatures. Climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50 % across emission scenarios. Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes. Impacts at higher altitudes and higher latitudes are still negative but less pronounced. The world’s dominant production regions in Brazil and Vietnam may experience substantial reductions in area available for coffee. Some regions in East Africa and Asia may become more suitable, but these are partially in forested areas, which could pose a challenge to mitigation efforts.”
Articles and Research
Wild coffee species threatened by climate change and deforestation
The extinction of wild species could jeopardize the viability of commercial coffee varieties.
16 January 2019
Nature
Emiliano Rodríguez Mega
“Most of the world’s wild coffee species have a high chance of going extinct in the next several decades due to more frequent and lengthy droughts, loss of forests and the spread of deadly pests, according to a study(1) published on 16 January in Science Advances.”
“Using criteria from the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the team found that 60% of all coffee species are at high risk of extinction.”
“Living collections that attempt to safeguard wild-coffee varieties in the form of seed or plant banks face their own set of threats. The most complete collection of coffee diversity resides in four gene banks comprised of full-grown trees. But these protected locations are underfunded, lack skilled personnel or are threatened by deforestation and pests, according to a 2018 report by the Crop Trust, an organization that works to preserve crop diversity in Bonn, Germany.”
“‘Coffee is the major commodity crop for African countries that produce it, and the local communities and governments have good reasons to conserve it,’ says Tadesse Gole, an ecologist at the Environment, Climate Change and Coffee Forest Forum in Addis Ababa, and co-author of a study(2) published on 16 January that predicted wild populations of arabica coffee could decline by 50% by 2088 due to climate change.”
References:
Davis, A. P et al. Sci. Adv. 5, eaav3473 (2019). Article
Moat, J. et al. Glob. Change Biol. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14341 (2019).
The Price of Climate Change on Ethiopia: Extinction of Wild Arabica
08 December 2015
Perfect Daily Grind
Written by K. Petrie and edited by K. Beard
Lee este artículo en español: Cambio Climático en Etiopía: Extinción del Arábica Silvestre
“Ethiopia is not only said to be the origin of Coffea arabica, but also a genetic bank of coffee. The natural diversity of coffee plants here is stunning. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a 10-20% decrease in overall crop yields by 2050, due to climate change worldwide.
“This unprecedented challenge to agriculture might affect the vulnerable coffee plant in a variety of ways. The IPCC predicts a global mean temperature increase of 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century, but Ethiopia’s temperature is estimated to rise by 1.7-2.1 degrees Celsius by 2050 – an increase that is far ahead of the global annual mean.”
“In a recent paper published by Kew Gardens in conjunction with the Ethiopian Environment and Coffee Forest Forum (ECFF), climate models were produced for Ethiopia. They predicted a 65% reduction in the recorded suitable sites of wild coffee by 2080, at best, and a worst-case scenario of a 99.7% decline.
“This reduction would mean that, by 2080, wild Arabica beans could be nearly extinct. And this modelling doesn’t even take into account other factors such as pests, diseases, and Ethiopia’s accelerating deforestation – all of which could speed up the process.”